How Football Predictions Work: From Data to Probability
Understand the end-to-end journey of a MatchSight prediction from standardized fixture data to the probability cards shown in our mobile application.
Step 1: Data Ingestion & Sanitization
Verified data feeds provide kickoff times, competition schedules, and historical full-time scorelines. Feeds are validated to ensure scores and timestamps are complete before ingestion.
Step 2: Attack & Defense Ratio Extraction
Teams have their scoring and concession averages calculated across recent competition fixtures, normalized against overall league goal baselines.
Step 3: Probability Synthesis
The engine computes an exact discrete probability distribution across possible score combinations (0 through 7 goals per side). These cells are normalized and aggregated to produce percentage distributions across 1X2, Both Teams to Score, Over/Under 2.5 goals, and the most probable scoreline.
Step 4: The Quality Gate
If a match lacks sufficient sample history (under 20 league fixtures or under 5 venue matches per club), MatchSight triggers an automated gating notice: "Forecast withheld — Insufficient data". We never invent speculative predictions when empirical evidence is missing.